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Leinki:

And, as two final indicators that Labour shouldn't be worried about the London mayoral race:

a) If Labour thought there was the slightest chance of losing they'd already be trying to manage expectations about it in the media

b) Khan's favourability rating, while not great, is still significantly greater than the Conservative polling numbers.

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One further clue that this is the case can be found by looking at council by-election results in London yesterday. They're a mixed bag (as council by-elections always are) but on average they show a clear swing to Labour. Again: the opposite of what you'd expect if there was an upset on the way.

So, bearing all that in mind, it would still be absolutely astounding for Khan to lose this election to the Conservatives, even with the change in the voting system.

The differential turnout is a strong sign that Khan will once again underperform his polling. But it is *highly* doubtful he could do so by the 15+ points needed for him to lose.

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In 2021 we had the vaccine bounce, and the Conservatives were polling much better than now, including in London (albeit less well than outside London). Similarly, Reform UK were nowhere in the polls , whereas now they've been polling at around 6% in the mayoral race.

Additionally, Khan's lead in opinion polls is around twice what it was in 2021.

Eh. I'm not convinced.

The differential turnout is definitely noteworthy, and shouldn't be dismissed. And it does suggest that Khan, once again, is significantly underperforming his polling figures and his party's popularity.

However, the Conservatives today are also a lot less, and Labour are a lot more, popular than they were in 2021.

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So an example of this is that the Bexley and Bromely assembly constituency (which has always been won by the Conservatives) has a turnout of 48% this year compared to 44% last time round.

But the opposite is the case in more Labour areas such as City & East (31% now vs 35% last time).

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Finally figured out why there are Conservative sources being remarkably optimistic about the London mayoral race. Settle in folks, this is going to be complicated.

It's all to do with turnout. Cons have spotted that turnout figures are higher in more Conservative areas and lower in more Labour areas:

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